On-chain analytics suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a definitive bull market phase, following a technical validation of cyclical momentum. According to data shared by analyst Darkfost on September 24, 2026, a rare indicator involving holder cost bases has been triggered for only the fifth time in the cryptocurrency's history. This signal is widely regarded by market participants as a verification of a trend reversal, suggesting that the bearish sentiment observed in previous months has been superseded by long-term growth dynamics.
The STH and LTH Cost Basis Crossover
The primary catalyst for this bullish outlook is the movement of the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis relative to the Long-Term Holder (LTH) active cost basis. Historically, when the cost basis of newer market entrants breaks above the active cost basis of veteran holders, it signals a transition into a sustained upward trajectory.
- The signal confirms that market momentum has shifted from accumulation to active growth.
- This marks the fifth historical occurrence of this specific on-chain event.
- The indicator was first flagged as nearing completion on July 11, prior to the current validation.
The active LTH cost basis is a refined metric that excludes Bitcoin supply dormant for more than seven years, focusing instead on liquid assets that impact price discovery.
Supply Dynamics and Market Liquidty
Darkfost highlighted that the use of "active" cost bases provides a more accurate reflection of current market health. By filtering out approximately 3.5 million BTC that have remained dormant for over a decade, analysts can better assess the behavior of participants who are likely to trade.
This signal further strengthens the credibility of the current Bitcoin bull cycle. While there is always a margin for error in technical forecasting, the crossover indicates that cyclical momentum has officially turned.
Despite the bullish confirmation, the market remains aware of the large volume of illiquid supply. Data shows that a significant portion of the 21 million total supply remains in long-term cold storage, which may contribute to a supply crunch if demand from institutional and retail sectors continues to accelerate during this confirmed cycle.
The current technical setup suggests that Bitcoin is mirroring patterns seen in previous post-halving eras. While macroeconomic factors always play a role in price volatility, the internal mechanics of the blockchain suggest that the foundational trend for the remainder of 2026 remains positive. Investors often look to these on-chain milestones to differentiate between short-term price fluctuations and fundamental shifts in the digital asset's market structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about this topic.
For educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial or investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always DYOR before making any decisions.
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