The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator has officially shifted to an "early bull market" signal, marking the first time this technical milestone has been reached since March 2023. According to analysis from CryptoQuant expert MorenoDV, this transition suggests a potential pivot in market structure. Historically, such shifts indicate that the most severe phases of a price correction have concluded, though historical precedents suggest that technical signals must be weighed against broader market momentum and macroeconomic factors.
Historical Context and Signal Reliability
The emergence of this specific signal has historically served as a precursor to significant market shifts. By analyzing previous cycles, researchers have identified several key outcomes:
- In 2019 and early 2023, the signal accurately identified the end of bear market lows and the start of a recovery phase.
- An exception occurred in March 2022, where a similar signal resulted in a local top followed by price rejection rather than a sustained rally.
- The current 2026 data shows that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deep bear market asset, signaling a structural change in investor behavior.
Current Market Momentum and Risk Factors
Despite the optimistic shift in the cycle indicator, analysts remain cautious due to mixed technical data. While the 30-day moving average of the BTC price shows signs of recovery, indicating improving momentum, other on-chain metrics continue to display underlying weakness. This divergence makes the current May 2026 signal less definitive than the "classic" early cycle confirmations observed in previous years.
"The recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown weakness, making this signal less clear than classic early cycle confirmations", MorenoDV noted.
The analyst suggests that while the asset has moved out of the "deep bear" territory, there is a possibility that this movement represents a local peak rather than the definitive start of a long-term parabolic bull run.
The recent movement in Bitcoin (BTC) technical indicators highlights a period of transition for the digital asset market. While the "early bull market" status provides a psychological boost to market participants, the inconsistencies among secondary indicators suggest that the blockchain ecosystem may face further volatility. Investors and analysts continue to monitor whether this signal will lead to a sustained recovery or if it will mirror the failed breakout seen in 2022.
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For educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial or investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always DYOR before making any decisions.
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