Market analysts suggest that the current Bitcoin (BTC) correction may be entering its final phases, although investors should prepare for several more weeks of sideways or downward price action. Despite the prevailing bearish structure, technical indicators are beginning to signal a potential shift in momentum. Recent data suggests that while the primary cryptocurrency remains confined within a downward channel, specific on-chain and chart patterns point toward a gradual recovery in the medium-to-long term.
Technical Indicators and Resistance Levels
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin is currently trading below its 21-day and 50-day moving averages, which are serving as significant overhead resistance. The technical outlook dampened in early November 2025 when a "death cross"—a bearish signal where the short-term moving average crosses below a long-term average—was confirmed. Currently, the 200-day moving average sits well above the $65,930 mark, acting as a critical hurdle for any bullish reversal.
- The 21-day moving average must reclaim its position above the 200-day average to signal a trend shift.
- RSI momentum remains weak, repeatedly failing to sustain levels above the 50 neutral mark.
- A bullish divergence has been identified on the daily chart, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting.
Elliott Wave Projections and Price Targets
From a structural perspective, market experts point to the Elliott Wave theory to explain the current price trajectory. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be in "Wave C," which typically represents the final leg of a corrective pattern. While a short-term relief rally could push the price toward the $62,000 level, analysts warn that one final downward move may be necessary to complete the cycle.
A short-term rebound may reach around $62,000, but a subsequent downward wave will be needed to complete the entire pullback pattern. The target for wave C points towards $52,000 to $55,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe has entered a "reset" phase. This is often viewed by traders as a healthy development that flushes out overleveraged positions and builds a foundation for the next leg up. While the short-term outlook requires patience, the cooling of weekly indicators suggests that the macro-uptrend of the blockchain leader remains intact.
In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a complex corrective phase characterized by technical resistance and weakening momentum. However, the emergence of bullish divergence and the resetting of long-term oscillators suggest that the bottoming process is underway. Investors are advised to monitor the low $50,000 range for potential support as the market seeks to finalize its current corrective structure before attempting a new bullish expansion.
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For educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial or investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always DYOR before making any decisions.
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