As the global financial community awaits the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, the cryptocurrency market is bracing for potential volatility. Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liyibit mining pool, has projected a specific price trajectory for Bitcoin, suggesting that the leading digital asset might experience a temporary decline before a recovery phase. With the announcement scheduled for 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, traders are closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators that could dictate the short-term momentum of the BTC/USD trading pair.
Market Expectations and the Federal Funds Rate
Current market sentiment, derived from the 30-day federal funds futures price, indicates a high degree of certainty regarding the central bank's next move. Data suggests there is an approximately 92% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike. This adjustment would shift the target interest rate range from its current 3.50%–3.75% to a new bracket of 3.75%–4.00%.
- Current Target Range: 3.50% to 3.75%
- Projected New Range: 3.75% to 4.00%
- Probability of 25 bps Hike: ~92%
- Announcement Date: September 17, 2026
Anticipated Bitcoin Price Action and the Dot Plot
According to Jiang Zhuoer's analysis, the market is likely to follow a "fall then rise" pattern immediately following the announcement. He warned that Bitcoin may test the $19,000 level as an immediate reaction to the tightening monetary policy. Beyond the rate hike itself, investors are focused on the release of the dot plot, which provides insight into the FOMC members' projections for future interest rate paths. The dot plot is a critical tool for assessing the long-term "hawkish" or "dovish" stance of the Federal Reserve.
The market is expected to fall first and then rise after the Federal Reserve's decision, and Bitcoin may test $19,000.
The interplay between traditional fiscal policy and blockchain-based assets continues to tighten as institutional adoption grows. While a $19,000 retest would represent a significant challenge for bulls, the subsequent recovery predicted by Zhuoer suggests that the market may have already priced in much of the current inflationary pressure. Participants are advised to remain cautious as the dot plot data could introduce unexpected variables into the crypto-economic landscape for the final quarter of the year.
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For educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial or investment advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always DYOR before making any decisions.
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