Analysis of current on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a significant accumulation phase as short-term holders shift from selling to buying during recent price dips. According to reports from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. on July 10, 2026, the market is currently mirroring a recovery pattern last observed during the February pullback. As selling pressure dissipates, the transfer of assets from speculative hands to more resilient investors indicates a potential stabilization of the primary digital asset's price action.
Shift in Market Sentiment and Cost Basis Analysis
The realized pressure model for short-term holders has shifted back to a buyer-dominated stance. Currently, the buyer pressure score sits at approximately 30, notably higher than the seller pressure score of 22. This divergence suggests that the "weak hands" who typically exit positions during volatility are being replaced by buyers willing to capitalize on lower entry points.
The short-term holder cost basis serves as a critical psychological and technical level for the market.
Specific price levels currently define the immediate landscape for the Bitcoin blockchain:
- The current market price is hovering around $57,900.
- The lower boundary of the short-term holder cost basis is identified at $54,600.
- The latest buyer cost basis is approximately 4% lower than current market rates.
- The overall average cost basis for short-term holders remains higher at $64,000.
Key Technical Support and Future Outlook
Analysts emphasize that the $54,600 level is the most critical support zone for maintaining the current demand structure. If the price remains above this threshold, the bullish accumulation thesis remains intact. However, a breach below this level could lead to unrealized losses for even the most recent market entrants, potentially triggering a new wave of liquidations.
As long as the lower boundary of $54,600 holds, the demand structure remains unchanged; if this level is lost, the latest holders will also incur losses
The primary signal for a confirmed trend reversal would be Bitcoin regaining the $64,000 mark, which represents the average cost basis for the broader group of short-term investors. Until this level is reclaimed, the market is expected to continue its consolidation phase as supply continues to move from short-term speculators to long-term conviction holders.
In summary, the easing of selling pressure to multi-month lows provides a constructive backdrop for the cryptocurrency market. While the $54,600 support level acts as a vital safety net, the ability of BTC to reclaim its higher cost basis will determine the sustainability of the next upward move. Investors continue to monitor these on-chain metrics as indicators of whether the current dip-buying behavior will lead to a definitive breakout.
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