Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin Has Underperformed Tech Stocks Since 2017

Bloomberg senior macro strategist Mike McGlone has released a critical assessment of the digital asset market, suggesting that the era of significant cryptocurrency outperformance may have concluded. According to McGlone’s analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market have struggled to keep pace with traditional equity benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) when adjusted for risk and volatility over the last several years. The report highlights a shift in market dynamics that began following the mainstreaming of crypto assets nearly a decade ago.

Comparative Stagnation of the Digital Asset Index

The core of McGlone's thesis relies on the performance of the Market Vector Digital Assets 100 Index (MVDA), a benchmark where Bitcoin accounts for approximately two-thirds of the total weight. The data indicates that since December 2017—the period marking the launch of Bitcoin futures—the MVDA has remained largely flat. In contrast, the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has experienced consistent growth during the same timeframe.

• Comparison of average volatility: Digital assets show roughly 3 times higher volatility than traditional stocks.
• Correlation factors: There is a growing positive correlation between BTC and the stock market.
• Risk diversification: Cryptocurrencies have recently failed to provide the expected non-correlated hedge for diversified portfolios.

The underperformance is particularly notable because investors typically expect higher returns to compensate for the extreme price swings inherent in the blockchain sector.

Mainstream Integration and Future Outlook

McGlone argues that the "peak" of cryptocurrency outperformance likely occurred before the asset class entered the institutional mainstream. The analyst points to several milestones as potential exhaustion points for the market's rapid growth phase, including the introduction of US-listed Spot ETFs and the increasing involvement of political figures, such as the 2024 U.S. election cycles involving Donald Trump.

From the perspective of risk and portfolio management, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be classified as underperforming assets over the past nearly decade.

The report suggests that the transition from a niche experimental technology to a regulated financial instrument has normalized Bitcoin’s returns, stripping away the explosive gains seen in the early 2010s.

While Bitcoin remains a significant focal point for institutional investors, the data presented by Bloomberg suggests a shift in the risk-reward ratio. As the digital asset market matures and aligns more closely with global macroeconomic trends, the historical narrative of Bitcoin as a superior wealth generator compared to the Nasdaq 100 is facing increased scrutiny from financial analysts. Future performance may depend more on broader liquidity cycles rather than the independent growth seen in the previous decade.