Galaxy Research Lower Probability of US CLARITY Act Passing to 30%

The legislative path for the CLARITY Act has encountered significant hurdles, leading Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, to significantly lower his expectations for its passage. In a recent market assessment shared on July 24, 2026, Thorn reduced the probability of the comprehensive cryptocurrency bill becoming law within the current year to approximately 30%. Despite the unveiling of the final 616-page text this week, analysts suggest that political friction and a tightening legislative window are stalling the most significant attempt to regulate the United States digital asset market to date.

Legislative Deadlock and the Narrowing Window

The CLARITY Act was designed to provide a robust regulatory framework intended to foster domestic innovation and ensure investor protection. However, Thorn noted that there are currently insufficient votes in Congress to move the bill forward. The legislative calendar for 2026 is becoming increasingly crowded, leaving little room for the extensive debate required for a document of this magnitude. Thorn characterized the current situation as being hindered by minor political maneuvers and urged congressional leadership to prioritize a vote to stabilize the blockchain industry.

Key Provisions of the 616-Page Merged Bill

The final text of the Act is a complex merger of versions from the Agriculture and Banking Committees. It aims to address various facets of the ecosystem, ranging from institutional ethics to individual user rights. The document is structured into four distinct chapters and includes the following key elements:

• Ethical constraints prohibiting government officials from holding specific digital assets.
• Enforcement provisions specifically designed to combat "pig butchering" scams and fraudulent schemes.
• Legal protections for open-source developers and the codification of self-custody rights.
• Regulatory clarity regarding stablecoin yields and issuance standards.

The bill represents a massive effort to reconcile different regulatory approaches between the CFTC and the SEC's jurisdictions over digital assets.

Expert Perspective on Market Impact

In his analysis, Thorn emphasized that the bill is essential for "perfecting the regulatory framework" and promoting growth within the United States. Without it, the industry may continue to face uncertainty.

The CLARITY Act would be helpful in perfecting the regulatory framework, protecting investors, and promoting domestic innovation and growth in the US, but currently, there are insufficient votes in Congress and the legislative window is narrowing.

The reduction in the probability of the Act passing reflects a growing concern among institutional stakeholders that the US may remain without a unified federal crypto policy for the remainder of the 2026 legislative session. While the Senate has successfully produced a unified text, the lack of bipartisan consensus on specific enforcement provisions remains the primary obstacle to achieving a majority vote. Moving forward, the industry's focus shifts to whether a "last push" from advocacy groups can influence leadership before the session concludes.